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　　Israel is threatening to attack Iran’s nuclear sites. This may not be a bluff。
　　以色列威脅襲擊伊朗的核設(shè)施，這絕不是虛張聲勢(shì)。

　　WITH oil prices at their present highs and Iraq at last making tentative progress towards stability, the last thing anyone wants to hear is that conditions in the Middle East could be about to take an abrupt turn for the worse. Unfortunately, they could. Recent weeks have brought a spike in chatter about the prospect of an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear installations. Israel has conducted ostentatious long-range air exercises over the Mediterranean, and one former chief of staff has called an attack inevitable if Iran continues its nuclear work. This noise might be just a bluff designed to signal to Iran that it would be wise to stop enriching uranium, as the United Nations Security Council ordered it to a full two years ago. Then again, it might not.

　　目前石油價(jià)格處于高位運(yùn)行，加之伊拉克似乎邁上了平穩(wěn)之路，現(xiàn)在人們最不愿看到的莫過(guò)于中東局勢(shì)再次急轉(zhuǎn)直下。不幸的是這種可能性依舊存在。最近幾周來(lái)，關(guān)于以色列軍隊(duì)將對(duì)伊朗核設(shè)施進(jìn)行打擊的傳聞甚囂塵上。日前以色列還進(jìn)行了一場(chǎng)聲勢(shì)浩大的跨地中海的長(zhǎng)途空軍演習(xí)。以色列一位前參謀長(zhǎng)指出如果伊朗繼續(xù)進(jìn)行核計(jì)劃，那么以色列將無(wú)可避免對(duì)其進(jìn)行打擊。這種叫囂可能試圖示意伊朗既然聯(lián)合國(guó)安理會(huì)早在兩年前就勒令其停止發(fā)展核武器，伊朗還是停止?jié)饪s鈾為妙。不過(guò)這仍舊是老調(diào)重彈，伊朗可能不會(huì)就此屈服。

　　Until recently, fears of an Israeli or American attack on Iran had been receding. The prospect of an American strike diminished after America’s intelligence services published their inconvenient finding last December that Iran had stopped trying to design a nuclear weapon in 2003. At the same time, diplomats have been able to point to the sort of progress diplomats point to: a series of Security Council resolutions, supported by Russia and China as well as the West, telling Iran to stop its uranium-enriching centrifuges. Sanctions have been applied as well: in the latest, the European Union decided this week to freeze the assets of Iran’s biggest bank, Bank Melli.

　　直到最近，人們對(duì)美國(guó)和以色列襲擊伊朗的擔(dān)憂才漸漸退去。去年12月份美國(guó)情報(bào)機(jī)構(gòu)不合時(shí)宜地公布了一份調(diào)查結(jié)果，該結(jié)果顯示伊朗自2003年就已經(jīng)停止設(shè)計(jì)核武器。自那以來(lái)，美國(guó)襲擊伊朗的可能性日漸式微，與此同時(shí)，許多外交人員也指出了一些他們所希望看到的進(jìn)展：在俄羅斯，中國(guó)，還有西方的支持下，安理會(huì)頒布一系列決議，勒令伊朗關(guān)閉離心機(jī)。同時(shí)還對(duì)伊朗進(jìn)行了諸多制裁：最近，歐盟決定在本周內(nèi)凍結(jié)伊朗最大的銀行——梅里銀行的資產(chǎn)。

　　Slowly but surely, you might conclude, the normal tools of diplomacy are being brought to bear, removing the need for anything worse. Besides, in November Americans may elect Barack Obama as president. Doesn’t he promise to sort out Iran by means of direct talks at the highest level, a necessary step that George Bush could never quite bring himself to take?

　　盡管進(jìn)程緩慢但毋庸置疑，我們可以得出此種結(jié)論——正常的外交手段正在逐步見(jiàn)效，因此無(wú)需再做更壞的打算。此外，美國(guó)有可能在十一月選舉奧巴馬為總統(tǒng)。難道他沒(méi)有承諾通過(guò)最高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的直接對(duì)話來(lái)解決伊朗問(wèn)題？ 而這步棋布什從未考慮。

　　If those were your reasons for ceasing to worry, think again. Despite that American intelligence finding, neither Israel nor many other governments believe that Iran has given up its interest in nuclear weapons. Yes, the UN has passed resolutions and imposed some mild sanctions, but Iran has spent two years disregarding them,
　　continuing to spin its centrifuges and to call for the destruction of Israel. It may well be true that Mr Bush is disinclined to bomb Iran now that he is a lame duck, but the possible advent of a President Obama might just make Israel more inclined to do so itself. As the hawkish John Bolton, a former Bush administration official, said this week, Israel may think the best time to attack would be during America’s presidential transition-too late to be accused of influencing the election and before needing a new president’s green light.

　　如果僅憑上述理由便高枕無(wú)憂，那么請(qǐng)?jiān)偃伎?。盡管有美國(guó)情報(bào)機(jī)構(gòu)的調(diào)查結(jié)果在前，但要說(shuō)伊朗放棄發(fā)展核計(jì)劃，以色列不信，其他許多政府也滿腹懷疑。誠(chéng)然，聯(lián)合國(guó)通過(guò)了數(shù)項(xiàng)決議，采取了許多溫和的制裁，但是伊朗在過(guò)去的兩年里對(duì)此置若罔聞，嗤之以鼻，在濃縮鈾的道路上越走越遠(yuǎn)，并號(hào)召消滅以色列。很可能布什也不愿繼續(xù)支持轟炸伊朗，由于他自己也成了一只跛腳鴨。但是由于奧巴馬可能擔(dān)任下任總統(tǒng)，使得以色列更加愿意單打獨(dú)斗。正如本周前布什政府機(jī)構(gòu)鷹派人物約翰博爾頓指出，以色列進(jìn)攻伊朗的最佳時(shí)機(jī)莫過(guò)于美國(guó)大選的空擋–既不會(huì)影響大選，招致指責(zé)，又可以趕在新總統(tǒng)的首肯之前。

Don’t do it
放下屠刀

　　Such an attack would be a mistake. Even if it did not turn the region into a “fireball”, as Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world’s nuclear watchdog, has predicted, it would certainly provoke retaliation. Given Iran’s size and sophistication, it would at best delay rather than end whatever plans the Iranians have to become a nuclear military power.

　　如此進(jìn)攻將鑄成大錯(cuò)。即使不像世界核武器監(jiān)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)IAEA主席穆罕默德阿伯雷德所指出的那樣，以色列的襲擊將會(huì)使該地區(qū)彌漫著硝煙戰(zhàn)火，但以色列此舉肯定會(huì)招致報(bào)復(fù)行為?？紤]到伊朗的國(guó)力和成熟的技術(shù)，對(duì)于任何發(fā)展伊朗成為核武器國(guó)家的計(jì)劃，伊朗最多延遲，而不會(huì)將其擱置。

　　Even if Iran did get the bomb, it would probably not use it for fear of Israel’s bigger, existing stockpile. And in the (admittedly improbable) event that Iran is telling the truth when it denies having any such ambition, nothing would change its mind faster than an Israeli strike. The trouble is, this logic looks different from Tel Aviv. Given their history, a lot of Israelis will run almost any risk to prevent a state that calls repeatedly for their own state’s destruction from acquiring the wherewithal to bring that end about. Till now, the world has talked a lot and applied some modest sanctions to stop Iran’s dash to enrich uranium. It is time to apply much tougher ones, in the hope that it is not already too late.

　　即便伊朗研制出了核武器，以色列的庫(kù)存也要略勝一籌，但是伊朗不會(huì)因此投鼠忌器。如果伊朗宣稱沒(méi)有任何野心所言屬實(shí)的話（事實(shí)上不大可能），以色列的襲擊將使伊朗最短時(shí)間內(nèi)改變主意。問(wèn)題是特拉維夫的看法大相徑庭。鑒于歷史因素，對(duì)于一個(gè)反復(fù)叫囂消滅自己祖國(guó)的國(guó)家，以色列人愿意不惜一切代價(jià)來(lái)阻止該國(guó)獲得所需的資金和技術(shù)，挫敗其陰謀。直到現(xiàn)在，世界早已就此喋喋不休爭(zhēng)論許久，也付諸了一些溫和的制裁來(lái)止住伊朗在濃縮鈾道路上疾行的腳步，現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候采取更強(qiáng)硬的措施了，希望亡羊補(bǔ)牢，尤未太遲。