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　　The picture is very different in emerging countries. Prices are rising much faster partly because food accounts for a bigger chunk of their consumer-price indices. But wages (rising at nearly 30% a year in Russia) and core-inflation rates are also accelerating. Many of these economies are operating close to full capacity, where inflation is more likely to take hold.
　　在新興經(jīng)濟(jì)情況迥然不同。因?yàn)槭称吩谙M(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)中所占比重較大，價(jià)格上漲要快得多。但工資（在俄羅斯一年上漲了將近30%）和核心通貨膨脹率同樣在上升。許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體已經(jīng)幾乎開動了自身的全部生產(chǎn)能力，通貨膨脹極有可能在這些地方肆虐。

　　There are alarming similarities between emerging economies today and the rich world in the 1970s when the Great Inflation lifted off. Many policymakers in emerging markets view the rise in inflation as a short-term supply shock and so see little need to raise interest rates. Instead they are using price controls and subsidies to cap prices. Money supplies are growing almost three times as fast as in the developed world. Many central banks are still not fully independent. And inflationary expectations are not properly anchored, increasing the risk of a wage-price spiral. Emerging markets may as well be inviting the muggers into their own homes.
　　今天，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)與70年代發(fā)展嚴(yán)重通貨膨脹的發(fā)達(dá)國家之間有著驚人的相似 性。新興經(jīng)濟(jì)的許多政策制定者將通貨膨脹率上升視為短期供給的沖擊，因而認(rèn)為沒有必要提高利率，而是使用價(jià)格控制和補(bǔ)貼的辦法來控制價(jià)格。貨幣供給速度是 發(fā)達(dá)國家的三倍。許多中央銀行還沒有完全獨(dú)立。通貨膨脹預(yù)期并沒有有效平復(fù)，從而增加了工資價(jià)格螺旋上漲的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。同以前的發(fā)達(dá)國家一樣，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)在也在 引狼入室。

　　Watch your back
　　小心

　　Rising inflation, like so much of the world economy in recent years, can be explained partly by the increasingly complex links between developed and emerging economies. Emerging economies shared some responsibility for America’s housing and credit bubble. As Asian economies and Middle East oil exporters ran large current-account surpluses, they piled up foreign reserves (mostly in American Treasury securities) in order to prevent their currencies from rising. This pushed down bond yields. At the same time, cheap imports from China and elsewhere helped central banks in rich economies hold down inflation while keeping short-term interest rates lower than in the past. Cheap money fuelled America’s bubble.
　　通貨膨脹加劇，同近些年的大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象一樣，在一定程度上由于發(fā)達(dá)和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)之間聯(lián)系日益復(fù)雜導(dǎo)致的。新興經(jīng)濟(jì)在一定程度上引起 了美國房地產(chǎn)和信用泡沫。由于亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體和中東石油出口國有巨大的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目盈余，為防止貨幣升值他們積累了大量的外匯儲備（大部分是美國國債），從而拉低 了債券收益。與此同時(shí)，從中國或其他地方進(jìn)口的廉價(jià)商品有助于中央銀行在保持短期利率低于以往的前提下有效控制通貨膨脹。低息貸款又使美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫雪上 加霜。

　　Now that this bubble has burst, the cross-border monetary stimulus has changed direction. As the Fed has cut interest rates, emerging economies that link their currencies to the dollar have been forced to run a looser monetary policy, even though their economies are overheating. Emerging economies with currencies most closely aligned to the dollar, notably in Asia and the Gulf, have seen the biggest price rises. Countries, such as Mexico, that have more flexible exchange rates and are more committed to inflation targets have done better.
　　現(xiàn) 在泡沫已經(jīng)破滅，國際貨幣的刺激因素也轉(zhuǎn)換了作用方向。隨著聯(lián)儲調(diào)低利率，雖然國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)過熱，將本國貨幣與美元掛鉤的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然被迫實(shí)行了更加寬松 的貨幣政策。貨幣嚴(yán)格盯住美元的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)，尤其是亞洲和海灣地區(qū)，價(jià)格上升幅度最大。而匯率有較大彈性并且更加致力于控制通貨膨脹的國家，比如說墨西哥， 經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)要好一點(diǎn)。

　　Even if the Fed’s interest rate suits the American economy, global interest rates are too low. In turn, the unwarranted stimulus to demand in emerging economies is further pushing up commodity prices; so too is speculative buying by investors seeking higher returns than from bond yields, which are still being depressed by the emerging economies’ build-up of reserves. This stokes inflationary pressures in America and Europe and makes life difficult for rich-country central banks.
　　即使聯(lián)儲的利率對于美國經(jīng)濟(jì)而言很合適，國際利率仍然很低。相應(yīng)的，它刺激了新 興經(jīng)濟(jì)的需求，抬高了商品價(jià)格。尋找比債券更高收益的熱錢也起了同樣的作用，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的巨額外匯儲備壓低了美國國庫券的收益率。這增大了歐美國家的通貨 膨脹壓力，讓發(fā)達(dá)國家的中央銀行日子很不好過。

　　Loose money in America and rigid exchange rates in emerging economies are a perilous mix. The longer emerging economies hold down their exchange rates, the greater the risk of rising global inflation. Admittedly, exchange-rate appreciation is not as simple a remedy for emerging economies as some claim: a rise in interest rates and the expectation of a further appreciation in the exchange rate could, perversely, exacerbate inflation by sucking in more capital; and setting the exchange rate free risks massive overvaluation. But with an economic serial killer on the loose, one way or another monetary policy will have to tighten and exchange rates rise.
　　美國大量的貨幣和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)剛性的匯率是一個危險(xiǎn)組合。新興經(jīng)濟(jì)固定自己的匯率越久，全球通貨膨脹的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越大。不得不承認(rèn)，上調(diào)匯率對于新興經(jīng)濟(jì)而言并不像有 些人聲稱的那樣是一劑簡單的良藥。加息和進(jìn)一步上調(diào)利率很可能產(chǎn)生反作用，吸納進(jìn)更多的資本而加劇通貨膨脹，而匯率自由浮動則可能嚴(yán)重高估貨幣價(jià)值。但面 對通貨膨脹這個經(jīng)濟(jì)連環(huán)殺手，必須設(shè)法收緊貨幣，上調(diào)匯率。