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　　由于合理的貨幣政策，這些年全球范圍內(nèi)的通貨膨脹維持在一個較低的水平。但這個暴徒現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)悄然潛回。

　　Double-digit price rises are about to afflict two-thirds of the world’s population
　　兩位數(shù)的通脹將會困擾全球三分之二的人

　　RONALD REAGAN once described inflation as being “as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit-man”. Until recently, central bankers thought that this thug had been locked up for life. Thanks to sound monetary policies, inflation worldwide had stayed low in recent years. But the mugger is back on the prowl.
　　羅納德里根曾經(jīng)這樣形容通貨膨脹—“它如強盜般兇猛，武匪般駭人，殺手般致命”。直到最近，中央銀行都以為這個惡棍已經(jīng)被終身囚禁起來。由于合理的貨幣政策，這些年全球范圍內(nèi)的通貨膨脹維持在一個較低的水平。但這個暴徒現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)悄然潛回。

　　Even though America is close to recession and growth in other developed economies has slowed, inflation is rising. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, this week gave warning about the mistakes of the 1970s, when inflation was let loose at huge cost to growth. His words were aimed at rich-country central banks, but policymakers in emerging economies are the ones who should most take heed. In countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia even the often dodgy official statistics show prices have risen by 8-10% over the past year; in Russia the rate is over 14%; in Argentina the true figure is 23% and in Venezuela it is 29%. If you measure the numbers correctly, two-thirds of the world’s population will probably suffer double-digit rates of inflation this summer (see article).
　　即使美 國即將面臨衰退，其他發(fā)達國家經(jīng)濟增長也已放緩，通貨膨脹卻日益嚴重。歐洲中央銀行主席讓-克洛德·特里謝本周警告世界不要重蹈70年代的覆轍，當時通脹 肆虐給經(jīng)濟帶來嚴重損失。他的話針對發(fā)達國家的中央銀行，但新興經(jīng)濟政策制定者們也應(yīng)該留心。在中國，印度，印度尼西亞，沙特等國，即使是經(jīng)過處理官方數(shù) 字也顯示在過去的一年里，價格上升了8%至10%，俄羅斯超過14%，阿根廷的真實數(shù)據(jù)是23%，而委內(nèi)瑞拉是29%。如果正確統(tǒng)計數(shù)字，今夏全球三分之 二的人將深受兩位數(shù)通貨膨脹之苦。

　　A 1970s reunion you really don’t want to attend
　　昨日不要重現(xiàn)

　　Taken as a whole (and using official figures), the average world inflation rate has risen to 5.5%, its highest since 1999. The main cause has been the surge in the prices of food and oil, which briefly soared above $135 a barrel this week. But Mr Trichet’s concern is that higher headline rates could push up inflation expectations, leading to bigger pay demands, and so trigger a wage-price spiral, as in the 1970s. Central bankers’ mistake then was to hold monetary policy too loose, so that higher oil prices quickly fed into other prices. So it is worrying that global monetary policy is now at its loosest since the 1970s: the average world real interest rate is negative.
　　整體而言（使用官方數(shù)據(jù)），全球平均通貨膨脹率今 年上升到自1999年以來新高的5.5%。這主要是因為食品和石油價格的上漲，后者本周突破135美元一桶。特里謝先生擔(dān)心，現(xiàn)在的情況可能如同70年代 一樣，更高的整體通貨膨脹率會提升通貨膨脹預(yù)期，引發(fā)大幅加薪的需求，從而引發(fā)工資價格的螺旋上升。70年代各中央銀行錯在貨幣政策太寬松，從而使高油價 迅速體現(xiàn)在其他價格當中?，F(xiàn)在的貨幣政策是70年代以來最寬松的—世界平均實際利率為負—這一事實令人格外擔(dān)憂。

　　By slashing interest rates as inflation has climbed, has the Fed sowed the seeds of a new inflationary era? That case looks hard to prove in the rich world. Inflation rates of 3.9% in America and 3.3% in the euro area are far higher than central banks want, and inflation expectations are rising. If growth in the euro area remains robust, the ECB should certainly worry more about inflation. Yet so far there is little sign that higher food and oil prices are pushing up other prices in the rich economies. Wages have remained relatively subdued and core rates of inflation (excluding food and energy) are little higher than a year ago. Moreover, growth is expected to be below trend in America and Europe over the next year or so and unemployment is likely to climb, which will help to curb wage rises. America’s consumer-confidence index has fallen to a 28-year low, which suggests that consumer spending will fall. This, in turn, will spur firms to cut costs and limit pay rises.
　　在 通貨膨脹率上升時大幅削減利率，聯(lián)儲是否埋下通脹的禍根？在發(fā)達國家恐怕很難這樣說。美國通貨膨脹率是3.9%，歐元區(qū)為3.3%，都遠高于中央銀行的目 標，并且通貨膨脹還在上升。如果歐元區(qū)發(fā)展持續(xù)強勁,歐洲中央銀行就肯定會更加擔(dān)心通貨膨脹了。然而到目前為止沒有跡象表明在發(fā)達國家食品石油價格的上漲 也拉高了其他價格，工資相對比較穩(wěn)定，核心通貨膨脹率（除去食品和能源）并不比去年高多少。據(jù)估計大約一年以后，美國和歐洲的增長將會減慢，失業(yè)率將上 升，這有助于抑制工資上升。美國消費者信心指數(shù)已經(jīng)跌至28年來最低，意味著消費支出降低，這又會刺激企業(yè)進一步削減成本，控制工資上升。