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　　How much will rising shipping costs hurt Chinese manufacturing?　　上漲的海運(yùn)成本如何損害中國(guó)的制造業(yè)？

　　ON LAND, high oil prices have ended America’s love affair with sport-utility vehicles, forcing carmakers to revamp their product line-ups. In the air, sky-high fuel costs have prompted airlines to raise ticket prices and cut routes. What about at sea? Could rising shipping costs scupper China’s export boom?
　　在陸上，高油價(jià)已結(jié)束了美國(guó)人對(duì)SUV的偏好，迫使轎車(chē)生產(chǎn)商們重新調(diào)整他們的生產(chǎn)線(xiàn)；在空中，過(guò)高的燃料成本也已促使各航空公司提高票價(jià)，削減空中航線(xiàn)；那么海上呢？上漲的船運(yùn)成本有沒(méi)有影響中國(guó)繁榮的出口貿(mào)易呢？

　　This question has been much discussed since Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal of CIBC, a Canadian bank, issued a memo a few weeks ago saying that a reversal of the great migration of manufacturing operations to China might already be under way. The cost of shipping a standard 40-foot container from Shanghai to America’s east coast, for example, has jumped from $3,000 in 2000 to about $8,000 today.The extra cost of transporting goods halfway around the world, Messrs Rubin and Tal wrote, is wiping out the often slim margins of Chinese exporters.What is more, if oil and shipping prices stay high, many Western companies that now outsource their manufacturing to China might decide that it makes more sense to shift production closer to their customers at home.
　　這個(gè)問(wèn)題已經(jīng)討論的很多了，在這之前，加拿大的一家銀行CIBC 的的杰夫Bubin 和本杰明Tal在幾周前發(fā)表了一份備忘錄，說(shuō)與制造業(yè)向中國(guó)大量遷移的相反的情形，可能已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)。一個(gè)40英尺標(biāo)準(zhǔn)集裝箱從上海運(yùn)到美國(guó)東海岸的海運(yùn)費(fèi)已經(jīng)從2000年時(shí)的3000美元飛漲到今天的大約8000美元。Rubin 和Tal在備忘錄中提到，繞地球半周的貨運(yùn)所增加的成本正在吞吃掉中國(guó)出口企業(yè)業(yè)已微薄的利潤(rùn)空間。更甚者，如果油價(jià)和海運(yùn)價(jià)格繼續(xù)保持高位，那么許多現(xiàn)在將生產(chǎn)放在中國(guó)的西方公司可能會(huì)認(rèn)為將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到距離其消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)更近的地方會(huì)更具商業(yè)意義。

　　Such scenarios would entail a huge shift in global trade patterns. Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, says higher shipping costs could even sound the death knell of the entire East Asian export model.This is because so many of the finished goods that China exports to America and Europe are made from components imported from Taiwan, Japan or South Korea. Clearly, affordable transport costs are an essential ingredient in this regional production matrix.
　　這樣的構(gòu)想可能會(huì)引發(fā)全球貿(mào)易格局的巨大改變。投資銀行摩根·斯坦利的施蒂芬·Jen說(shuō)更高的海運(yùn)成本甚至可能敲響整個(gè)東亞出口貿(mào)易模式的喪鐘。這是因?yàn)楸姸嗟闹袊?guó)出口到美歐的制成品是由來(lái)自臺(tái)灣、日本和南韓的零部件在中國(guó)組裝加工成的。顯然，較低的運(yùn)費(fèi)成本在這種區(qū)域性的產(chǎn)品制造鏈矩陣中是很重要的一環(huán)。

　　Exporters in China are certainly feeling the pain of higher shipping costs. The Transpacific Stabilization Agreement bunker charge, a benchmark fuel surcharge imposed by shipping firms on sea freight, has risen from $455 per 40-foot equivalent unit in January 2007 to $1,130. Shipments to Europe face similar increases. In the first half of 2008 the growth rate of Chinese exports slowed to 21.9% from 27.6% a year earlier. In Guangdong province, the traditional heart of China’s export manufacturing, growth plunged to 13% from 26.5%.
　　中國(guó)的出口商確實(shí)正在感受到高運(yùn)費(fèi)所帶來(lái)的痛苦。泛太平洋運(yùn)價(jià)穩(wěn)定協(xié)議組織的燃油附加費(fèi)，一項(xiàng)船運(yùn)公司在海上貨物運(yùn)輸方面所使用的基準(zhǔn)燃料額外收費(fèi)，其每40英尺集裝箱所相當(dāng)?shù)呢浳飭挝坏馁M(fèi)用已經(jīng)從2007年1月的455美元上漲到1130美元。到歐洲的海上運(yùn)輸面臨著相似的燃油附加費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)。2008年的上半年中國(guó)出口增長(zhǎng)率從一年前的27.6%放緩至21.9%。在廣東，這個(gè)中國(guó)外貿(mào)出口的傳統(tǒng)核心省份，出口業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)率從26.5%跌至13%。

　　But if there is a migration of manufacturing from China, it is hardly an exodus. Even the latest trade figures do not show a fall in Chinese exports-only a drop in their pace of growth. And this can be attributed to a number of factors, including China’s stronger currency (up almost 7% against the dollar this year), upward pressure on domestic wages, less generous Chinese government incentives for low-end exporters and weakening foreign demand.
　　但是如果說(shuō)可能有中國(guó)制造業(yè)的向外轉(zhuǎn)移的情況出現(xiàn)，也不會(huì)是一次大轉(zhuǎn)移。就連最新的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)也沒(méi)有顯示出中國(guó)外貿(mào)出口的下降，只是增速的回落。這歸因于一系列的因素，包括中國(guó)走強(qiáng)的貨幣（今年人民幣兌美元上漲了近7%）、國(guó)內(nèi)工資的上漲壓力、中國(guó)政府對(duì)低端產(chǎn)品出口企業(yè)的支持下降和趨弱的國(guó)際需求。